[digitalis]

I think we can put the good player on KK-99, which he will fold if we raise the turn, and a big ace that he isn't going to fold.

The good player isn't putting any more money into the pot w/ an underpair unless he hits a set. It should be clear to him we have an ace.

Since the good player isn't going to call a river raise with anything you beat, you might as well knock him out of the pot with a turn raise before he improves to something that does beat you (like he hits his set w/ KK-99)

If you raise the turn you prevent the 1 in 23 chance this happens.

Versus the ho-hum player it is better to call the turn. The ho-hum player will probably fold an underpair on the turn if we raise, but make a crying call on the river.

If he has an underpair on the turn, you are ahead 22 out of 23 times on the river. Many of these 22 times he will pay off one more BB, which is enough to offset those times he does improve to a set.

Correct?