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Old 11-16-2005, 02:48 PM
BobboFitos BobboFitos is offline
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Default Re: AQs flops the nut flush draw

I think pushing isn't as good as calling, although it's pos EV, (so obv much better then folding!) because...

on this texture, for someone to lead out, it doesn't "mean" they have a combo draw or 2pair+, but the small range of folding equity you have when pushing your coinflip type draw vs a leader out into pfr and cold caller is low.

So, when called, you figure to be a cointoss, and you figure to be called alot, which does trap some dead money, therefore is pos EV, but not by a wide margin.

Also, small range of hands that may fold (6x, certain small overpairs) are kinda limited; what is everyone putting the cold caller on?

When you call, you are able to play the turn w/ position and you have a nut draw... Someone said you wont be paid off on a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] this is hardly the case, often someone can have smaller heart draw which is the beauty of the NFD anyway. Allow them to put money in drawing dead.

See, about folding equity earlier, even if you have what you're representing, (Like KK, QQ, etc.) too many hands will be obligated to call even knowing this. add in the possibility of a live player calling everything with something like A6, (which even has you reverse dominated!) hoping to pick off a bluff or the hand you have, and you just cant garner too much folds.

Also, by calling, you still may get a free river, as if lead out has a hand like 65 or 45 they will slow down called in two spots, so you could still see cheap river.

Plus, if A or Q hits, you can more adaquetly protect your hand vs 5x or smaller pair etc.

Anyway, I feel this is a clear call, with a non nut flush draw (Say, JT[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) this spot I think a push is better, but it's much closer.
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