[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
That's a 0.3 chance of multiplying your stack by 8. I'll take it.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's always nice to hear someone who looks at the upside of things. You are obviously right, but when you bust a few times in a row against several very loose callers, you begin asking questions.

Anyway, I will take your point a step further, to calculate the general EV of these strong protection moves against very loose callers, in an SNG.

It's a 22$, 2-tables SNG. Let's say you have 3 all-in confrontations, in all of them you are 1:2 favorite. For the simplicity of things, I'll assume the opponent on each all-in have the same stack as yours.

So, it's 0.3 you bust, and 0.7 you multiply your original stack by 8. In Stars, This brings you to 12,000, which is about half the chips in the game. It means that you win 1st or 2nd place. I'll assume equal spread between them. 1st pays 142, second pays 108. Net = 120 and 86. avarage net = 103.

(103 X 0.3) - (22 X 0.7) = 15.5

This is more than 70% ROI.

Wow, very nice.

I guess this is the mathematical proof of why fishy SNGs are so good for your bankroll...

And it's clear that the variance is much bigger here, with only 30% in-the-money, and no 3rd and 4th places.

Interesting.


PrayingMantis