[lorinda]

[img]/forums/images/icons/shocked.gif[/img]

I believe irchans is wrong....which would be amazing, even more amazing if I've got it right...here is my solution

Im starting in one room south, (symmetrical so irrelevant)

1/4 of the time I move north and "win"
1/4 of the time I move south to a "bad 2", with only one way back to a "1"
1/2 of the time I move east or west to a "good 2" with two ways back to a "1"

So...
1/4 of the time I win instantly
1/4 of the time (1/2 * 1/2) I die to a "Good 2"
1/4 of the time I go to a "Good 2" but return to a "1"
3/16 (1/4 * 3/4) of the time I go to a "Bad 2" and then die
1/16 of the time I go to a "Bad 2" to a "1"

Giving 1/4 win 7/16 dead 5/16 back in a "1"

= 4/16 win 7/16 dead 5/16 repeat

as the repeats follow same rules, i will win in a 4:7 ratio, or 36.36%