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Old 11-01-2005, 05:52 PM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 704
Default Re: On the Edge - IX

If one assumes the reads given are 100% correct (as the author apparently does) then Hero misplayed the hand.

The narrative makes it clear that queen-high is the best hand after Villain checkraises the flop. Hero should call the flop checkraise and wait for the autobet on the turn. If a heart or a new small card hits then Hero is in trouble and should call down. His hand may still be good and he has many potential outs. But if the board pairs or a high card hits Hero is in the clear and can raise for protection/value. Obviously this also works well if Hero makes his hand on the turn.

As the hand was actually played folding the river does not merit the slightest consideration because you appear to have the best hand. Most of the time the raise will only succeed in folding out a worse hand. That's actually a very good thing because showing Q6o could be very expensive. A real wake-up call for both the tight blinds and the predictable Villain.

If Hero really has folding chances against an occasional trash four then the river raise may be good. Certainly the pot odds are there for taking a risk. But the author might have at least noticed that the river completes the wheel. Based on the article I would say that 32o is the single most likely hand for Villain to have.
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