The reason I posted
I don't have a lot of time to go through the math here as I have a meeting in a couple minutes but I'm not sure this SHOULD be standard in this game. I believe waiting for the turn to make a move is a good plan for a few reasons:
If the turn is not a fourth flush card,
-- The made nut flush isn't going anywhere anyway (and probably will still give action if the board pairs and he is drawing dead)
-- An overpair with a big flush card or a pair+nut flush draw is also probably not going anywhere
-- A set is probably not going anywhere
If a 4th flush card comes, you will often be given a free card by the nut flush (as he'll go for a check/raise) or will face a smallish bet from a non-nut flush that fears you have the nuts.
Downsides to waiting:
-- an overpair or TPTK-type hand without a flush card almost certainly will not give you any action (often, they won't give you any action if you raise the flop, either, though)
-- a smaller set will get away cheaply with a fourth flush card on the board when he would likely have put it all in on the flop
-- a decent player will be able to lay down the nut draw with a pair on the turn if you make a large bet
The last doesn't apply to a lot of players in this game so I think it can be discounted.
Thoughts?
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