Re: Oddly played T9s
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I agree that I probably should of raised preflop.
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Should have, Moose, should have.
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I am unsure of whether or not to bet this flop. Against 3 opponents, I don't know if this will work even close to enough, but against 2, I think I probably bet this board.
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I also check behind on this flop. You can't be sure if any calls will be air, pairs, draws, or what, so you can't be comfortable firing on the turn even if you do improve. You don't get the pot anywhere near often enough, and you may walk into a check-raise.
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What do most people do on this turn? I don't think folding is an option. My thinking was that I could possibly have value, and since I was going to have to call a river bet anyway most of the time, I figured I would go for the free showdown play.
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The problem is that sometimes you'll be 3bet and sometimes the river will be checked to you even if you just call. In addition, you've announced that you don't have an A or K by checking behind on the flop. You probably don't have a 7, and even if you did, why would you raise the turn instead of just betting the flop? I think this turn raise makes your hand pretty transparent, meaning you'll often be 3bet by any decent opponent who whiffed on a flop c/r. In addition, getting donked on the river really takes the wind out of your play.
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I think betting the river might have value, but I was not sure. Given MPs call on the turn, I figure he is on a draw, or has a pair almost certainly worse then mine (although I guess he could have J9 or Q9 or something, but I don't think it is that often). SB completed, so his range could be pretty wide. Again, I thought I might have him beat (with a hand he would call the river), but I wasn't sure.
Anyone else have thoughts on the matter?
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I don't think SB has a worse 9 or a 7 often enough for a bet here to have value unless MP overcalls with a worse hand. I have trouble running the math on stuff like this, but I think you have to think SB has an A a respectable portion of the time (unless you had a read he doesn't c/r limped pots often), a K more often, and a 7 or 9 about equally. MP is a lot harder to put on a range. I think you're underestimating his likelihood of having a scared K, but you were the one at the table. Maybe you could give a little more detail as to ranges and probabilities of holdings.
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