Re: Long shots with odds
I agree with Rozez. Also, you have to play some longshots to keep people guessing. If I know you only stay in pots with, say, a 20% or better of winning; I know a lot about your hand.
The variance issue is not as big as it seems. Standard deviation goes up only with the square root of payoff (assuming the odds break-even). Flipping a coin for $1 has a standard deviation of $1, betting $1 for a one in nine chance of winning $9 has a standard deviation of $3, not $9. So as long as your longshots aren't too frequent, and legitimate opportunities are not common, they should push up your standard deviation too much.
|