RESULTS
First of all, thanks to all who responded! Some very interesting discussion.
When the TAG called preflop, I put him on AQo, AQs, AJs, KQs, as well as pairs TT and lower. I don't think he would call with worse hands, and I think he would 3-bet with better hands.
So when he 3-bet the flop, I narrowed it down to AcQc, AcJc, KcQc, and once again pairs TT and lower. So unless he had 55/33/22, I was pretty sure I still had him beat, and the moron tagging along in the BB made it an easy cap for me.
Thus, I was somewhat surprised to see him raise the turn. Would he raise with anything that doesn't beat me? The only possibility is something like 99/88, but I would consider that a pretty sophisticated move. The reason I say that is that he needs to be fairly certain that he read me correctly for a high pocket pair and he needs to know that I'm capable of folding. The presence of the loosie in BB makes this move even more difficult.
Now comes the embarrassing part. I actually didn't even consider the outs for the chop. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] So since I was pretty sure that I was drawing to 2 outs, I mucked. Of course, the correct EV for calling (assuming he doesn't have a T or a 4) is:
(2/44)*15 + (3/44)*7.5 - 39/44 = 0.307 BB
So my mistake cost me $9. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
Incidentally, the math above assumes that I'm capable of calling the turn raise and folding on the river without improvement. If I'm not, mucking is still the correct turn action.
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