Have I made a mistake?
Assume the flop leaves you with 10 outs.
Your probability of improving your hand by the river is:
[1 - (37/47)(36/46)] * 100 ~= 38.4%
Your probability of improving your hand immediately on the turn is:
(10 * 100) / 47 ~= 21.28%
After not improving on the turn your probability of improving in the river is:
(10 * 100) / 46 ~= 21.74%
Why does this math indicate that the probabilty increased for the river draw over the turn draw?
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