[DrPublo]

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BTW, your river raise represents exactly JT, JJ, or TT

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I think it represents a much wider range than that.

Off the top, if I do boat on the turn I probably bet small enough to keep a flush or straight draw around. I definitely don't check.

Secondly, let's say I make trips on the turn and I know he has a flush draw (or straight draw, doesn't really matter for the purposes of this example). I'm still vulnerable against either draw, and thus I need to bet, and most draws fold for a 1/2-pot bet or so on the turn. And so I make nothing. But I also know if I check the turn he will put me on unpaired overs and bluff the river a large percentage of the time even if he misses. Then it becomes correct to sometimes check trips because I can make more on the river. And if he hits his draw at the same time that I fill I can make even more.

If this analysis is true then I can play a missed AK (or any hand with outs) in largely the same way, except rather than _snapping off_ his river bluffs with trips (or even one pair type hands), I can raise his river bet whether I hit or not. I can use optimal bluffing strategy (straight out of ToP) to make this river raise enough of the time that the villain can never call profitably.

Of course the villain in this hand doesn't know any of this and looked me up with three pair. C'est la vie.

The Doc