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Old 10-27-2005, 12:02 AM
soah soah is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 112
Default Re: Inducing a mistake?

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Not only do I love the flop, but I would also push the turn if he just calls. And also I almost never bet the same amount.

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Both you and TWP advocate playing it strong on the turn. I actually hadn't planned out the turn in advance (sounds smart, huh?). I guess I wanted to see what fell.

Another low card came and he checked to me. $180 in the pot now and he has more than a pot-bet left.

I felt my options were:
1) Check. It will further reinforce the idea that I am very weak and could earn me bonus action on the river.
2) Bet weak again. His most likely hand is a weakish pocket pair, and this could put him in a pickle. If he thinks he is ahead, his hand is vulnerable out of position in a big pot. And unless he's certain he's beaten, can he really afford to lay down his hand getting a good price in a big pot? On the other hand, he could correctly conclude that I am trying to trap him and fold... as I said, he's been playing pretty tight and I don't expect him to spew chips on command.
3) Bet big. The hope here is that he reads my weak flop bet as AK, and refuses to change his read. Will it work? I'm afraid that instead this show of strength will just get him to play correctly against me by mucking pairs and moving in with sets.

I ended up checking. The math shows that I am ok to bet $40 on the flop and give him two chances to catch a set... he only catches one time in ten, so he must get back $400+ before he shows a profit chasing there. Stacks are not deep enough to make that possible. And that is assuming he plays perfectly, while in reality I am choosing this line because it maximizes my chances of getting action from worse hands.

So I check the turn, yet another blank falls on the river and he bets $100. Call or push?
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