Re: Does a decreased winrate have an exponential effect on variance?
To me, variance is just a range above and below your expectation. As you expectation drops, the range still stays about the same, it's just a range around a different number. If my expectation is 2BB/100 with a SD of 17, then most of the time I'll have a result around -15 to +19. If I tilt and my expectation drops to -1BB/100, I'll have a range of -18 to +16. I don't see why tilting, in and of itself, would have a tremendous effect on my standard deviation.
|