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I couldn't reasonably expect your edge as a heads-up player to be so great so as to overcome the rake, due to variance.

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Variance has nothing to do with whether your edge exceeds the rake.

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Fair enough. I meant to point out that the variance of heads-up play will cause you to lose a lot of chips to the house. When heads-up, your "fair share" of winning hands is 50%. The house owns 5-10% of every pot. ... where am I going with this?