[soah]

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It's definately close. UTG would have raised at some point with 44 or 99. Obviously he doesn't have 88 or K4/K9/K8. The only hand hero really has to worry about is AK. AK is probably the most likely hand but KQ, KJ and KT aren't out of the question as someone else pointed out. I do get a sense that UTG isn't sure about his hand until the river, where hero shows a lot of weakness.

I would probably still fold but this is definately not clear-cut.

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You are making an awful lot of assumptions which are not based on any of the information provided. Who says UTG would have raised at some point with a set? It's very plausible that he was planning to let Hero bet out on the turn to pot commit himself, and then he could push to drive out the button (who may be chasing a flush). But when he fills up he decides to let the button overcall drawing dead instead. Why do you think that KQ/KJ/KT are all likely hands for him? We were told that this guy seems to be aware of positional considerations, and that he is "supertight." How many "supertight" players limp UTG with KT? Would he call a checkraise from a solid player with top pair and a trash kicker? Would he push the river with such a hand after Hero has already represented strong hand as well? If he is that confident that he has Hero beaten, and does not have a full house, then why wouldn't he raise the turn to avoid letting the button draw at a flush cheaply?