Re: Am I spewing?
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What is more likely, IMO, is that he still raised with a good hand, but is more likely to remember the AQ fold AFTER the push, which might limit his hand range that he's going to call with, as he has to assume Soss is pushing with something better than AQ here.
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I think that's about exactly where he's at. Exactly that type of player. He probably had a decent hand to reraise, but after I push, I think that he feels that I must have a bigger hand than AQ to make this play.
I think his raising range is something like:
AK-AT, KQ, maybe some lesser non-pair hand, pairs down to 8 or 9 prob.
His calling range is probably something like:
AK, AQ, TT+?. He prob folds 99 and calls JJ.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
404,103,744 games 0.671 secs 602,241,049 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.1325 % 28.86% 00.27% { T7s }
Hand 2: 70.8675 % 70.60% 00.27% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
So I'm 30% against that range when he calls me.
88 - 6
99 - 6
TT - 3
QQ-AA - 18
AK - 16
AQ - 16
AJ - 16
AT - 16
KQ - 16
Total combos 113
10% bluffing ~10 more combos
123 total
He's calling w/ 54 or so of them.
Just to be conservative and for ease of math, let's say I get called half the time.
50% I win 450+800+2400 = 3650
+1825 ev
50% of the time I get called and:
70% of that time I lose an additional 6700 = .5*.7*-6700 = -2345 ev
30% of the 50% I win 450+800+7500 = 8750 * .3 * .5 = 1312 +ev
1312+1825-2345 = +ev ~800 chips or 10% of my stack.
If I was more confident of these ranges (they could be much looser, but probably not much tigher) than I like my play. Given that I might have misread his ability to lay down KQ or AJ or 88, this could be EV nuetral or even slightly negative. Given my chip position and control over the table, I think that it's a bit of a spew.
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