[bigpooch]

You are correct that most people do not consider the
consequences of each decision and the resulting decision
trees. The case of having 4th down and goal at the two
yard line in the first quarter under "normal" circumstances
with the score tied should be automatic: don't send the
field goal unit in! Going for it early in a tied game also
is not a crucial decision made in crunch time; besides, it's
also very entertaining to the fans!

On the other hand, how do points scored in a football game
relate with the equity value of winning the game? Isn't
the assumption that maximizing EV of points scored is
directly related to maximizing the value of the game? I
know it's minor nitpicking and one can argue that between
roughly equally matched teams with the score being very
close, a linear approximation is adequate.