[SossMan]

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While most coaches could be more aggressive, to suggest it's usually better to go for it on 4th down is pure nonsense.

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Why is it nonsense? Because nobody has done it before? If you read the paper, he clearly states that game situations dictate proper decisions (example: it's Gillette Stadium, the fans had to bring shovels to find their seats, my defense hasn't given up a touchdown at home since the Carter administration, my quarterback is Ryan Leaf, etc...)

However, his assumptions are that the teams are of close to the mean in terms of skill and that the game is in the 1st quarter. He gives a great example:

Assume a team is has 4th and goal from the 2 yard line. Assume that the team has a perfect kicker. They have a 100% chance of making 3 points. Additionally, assume they have a 3/7ths chance of making a touchdown (and 100% chance of making the extra point).

What should the team do?

Well, you might say that both decisions yield the same expected value of 3 points. However, you must estimate the value of what happens next. If they go for it and don't get the touchdown, the other team gets the ball on it's own 2 yard line. After Mr. Perfect makes the field goal, they have to kickoff and give it to the other team at about the 35.

Therin lies the difference.

He goes on to determine the point value of having the ball at a certain yard line on a certain down and distance.

Of course, a team is probably not indifferent about a 100% shot at 3 points or a 3/7ths shot at 7 points when there is 0:05 seconds to go in the 4th quarter and they are down by 2 points. That is why he assumes it's the 1st quarter and teams maximizing their total points maximizes their chances of winning the game. This isn't necessarily true in 4th quarter or end of the half real game situations.