While this has been discussed in other threads, I thought it would be interesting to gather people's prognostications in one thread. How do you think election night will play out? It seems like the middle states and Deep South except for Florida are solidly for Bush while the West Coast and New England/New York are solidly for Kerry. Anyone who says that either candidate will win in a landslide is deluding themselves. Can Kerry win without Florida? Can Bush win without Ohio and Florida? It seems as though there are more must win states for Bush ie. Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri. But I think Florida is a must win for Kerry. While I think it will be close, I think many of the close states will break Kerry's way as election day nears. I think it will be Kerry winning the popular vote by 1% and the electoral vote by about 50-60 votes.
Here are some links:
http://www.zogby.com/soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=7779
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Elec...Projection.htm
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...ctoratemap.php
http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...04-an0726.html