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You win occasionally on the river. I highly doubt it is more often than 1 in 15.

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I think it's more than 1 in 15. Did you catch the read? Also think about what a turn donk means. Most of the time it's a pair picking up a draw or a draw picking up a pair. He probably would have check raised a weak pair on the flop right?

Krishan

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I think its more than 1/15 too. 15 times is a lot when you think about it, because this kind of situation normally won't even happen close to 15 times in a single session. This is where I think the reasoning the pot is big is good enough to make a call.