[zeitgeist]

Definitely a tough decision.

My initial thinking is that villain is on either (a) a small made flush that he wants to protect, or (b) the lone A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (possibly with a Jack) and that he's making a huge semi-bluff.

Less likely possibilities are (c) flopping the nut flush - clearly a big bet like this is -EV in the long term but I still see people doing it in the hopes that their opponents will think it shows weakness and will call (i.e. "fastplay is the new slowplay"), and of course (d) a stone bluff.

Let's say these last two cancel each other out, so you're probably looking at either (a) or (b), and maybe both are equally likely.

Anyway, if villain has a made non-nut flush, you've got seven outs twice (not nine, of course, as he has two of them), plus another out for a runner-runner full house. So you're something like 30% to win.

If villain just has the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], you're obviously a favourite, but not by much (55% against A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], for instance). And if villain has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus any J, 2, 3, 4 or 5, you become either a pure coinflip or a slight underdog.

So maybe half the time you're 50% likely to win, the other half only 30%. So if we average these out, you're a 40% underdog, or about 1.5:1.

Since you're looking at calling 8300 into a pot of 12,225, your pot odds are just under 1.5:1.

So adding all that up I would use up my time bank, fold, and be in a sour mood for the rest of the tournament.

Curious to know what you did and how it turned out.