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Old 10-04-2002, 12:26 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: What are the odds for this ?

Heh, in this case we do want the odds of doing something so many times in a row, unlike the question on the other page.

If you are a 1 bb/hr player with sd = 10 bb/hr, then losing for an hour means being down 0.1 standard deviations which is 46% (assuming hourly results are normal). Losing 15 consecutive hours is (.46)^15 = 1 in 114,454. Only winning 1 in 20 is 20*(.54)(.46)^19 = 1 in 236,689.
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