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Old 12-25-2005, 12:36 AM
DJ Sensei DJ Sensei is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 148
Default Re: Analyzing the flop bet

poboy is right, it is all about knowing your opponent. If i'm against a player who is generally weak (especially weak-tight), I will often read his 1/2 pot continuation bet as just that, and be more likely to raise on a bluff or semibluff. His 2/3 pot or more bets i'll give more respect to, and his less than 1/2 pot bets i'll almost always try and steal.

Against an aggressive, winning player, I will often read an "obvious continuation bet" (about exactly half the pot) as a quite strong hand, and a larger bet as a standard continuation (weaker hand). This kind of play is a level of thinking above the previous category, so be careful in making judgements on these criteria. As you know, making plays on one level while your opponent is two levels below in thinking doesn't really get you anywhere.

I make this second read because this is often how I play against opponents who seem "solid" but not very good. The kind who read HOH-1 and instantly fire out exactly 1/2 pot at each flop they raised preflop and missed. When in a pot against them, i'll often take actions that they (as a player who thinks they are good, but still have much to learn) will often confidently read as weakness, and play aggressively against me. (like, I flop TPTK or a set, and bet exactly 1/2 pot. EXACTLY 1/2 pot. if somebody recently read HOH, they'll almost certainly raise me because they think they've outsmarted me... suckers.)

A caveat to this advice, I'd probably assume all players at NL25 and NL50 fit into the first category. Trying to make second-category reads will often be nothing more than FPS against most weak opponents, causing you to bluff chips off to calling stations. And if theres anything I HATE, its bluffing chips off to calling stations.
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