[chezlaw]

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In your example T2 and T1 are equally likely. However, T2 has far greater utility and is the smart choice. This is because there are an infinite number of equally likely theories in which any course of action may have an effect, and these theories will balance out to make every course of action identical for purposes of "afterlife" and similar considerations. It is just as likely that God will punish us for being Christian as that he will reward us, for example.

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If two theories don't make different prediction about the world then neither has greater utility.

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However, this case is irrelevant. Christianity does make different predictions about the world, very different predictions. Those predictions don't bear out. Keep in mind that "implied conditions" are as important here as "actual conditions." In other words, if there had been a world-wide flood and all species of animal had spread from a single point subsequently, there should be evidence of that in today's world. In this case, absence of evidence is indeed evidence of absence.

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Now you switch to Christianity which does make different predictions about the world. Clearly there is lots of evidence about most religons which is why there is a reason to believe them or not.

chez