[Harv72b]

I'm going to have to disagree on the flop call. While it's certainly possible that someone has the flush draw, it's hardly a given. And of course it's also possible (as was the case this time) that someone else flopped two pair, but that's also not always going to be the case. When all of my outs are live that gives me ~6.5, including the backdoor flush draw. Obviously you have to discount, but even with 5 outs this becomes a reasonable flop call.

As far as what I do if the 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] turns (or any other 5), I raise once and exactly once. If MP2 3-bets or a flop caller 3-bets behind me, I act accordingly...in this case, probably calling for 1 more and folding the river UI multiway, calling 1 on the river HU, or folding if it's 3-bet & capped after my raise.

As far as what I do on the turn, if any card comes other than a 5, 6, or diamond, I fold for one bet.

So, really, the absolute worst case scenario has me putting in 4.5 BBs and losing to MP2's KJ, when I turn a 5 and call down in a HU pot. Most of the time, I'm losing 1 SB by calling on the flop and then folding when the turn doesn't improve me. A few more times I turn a diamond and call 1 more on the turn, fold the river UI.

As for the best case...well, I think we pretty much saw it here, although it would've been nice if UTG+1 had called on the turn (he thought about it for around 15 seconds before folding to my first raise). Will I end up turning two pair or trips and losing to a river redraw? Yeah, from time to time. Every so often I'll turn a 5 or 6 and then catch the 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the river, winning several bets from a flush.

I dunno, someone else can do the math if they like, but I don't think peeling on the flop here is -EV, assuming I play it properly on later streets.