[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just sat down so no reads on anyone. What do you do on the turn (and river if you call the turn)?
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed)
http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">
3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.
Flop: (8.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP3 calls.
Turn: (5.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Hero calls
[/ QUOTE ]
River: (9.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.
Final Pot: 11.25 BB
Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Qh Qd (one pair, queens).
MP3 has 2h Ah (high card, ace).
Outcome: BB wins 11.25 BB. </font>
So it turned out to be a semi-bluff raise on the turn. I'd really like to know what you all think of MP3's play since one guy on the table called him an idiot.
Do any of you guys make a bluff raise like this here?
[/ QUOTE ]
Against me, the turn raise is probably a good play.
Against typical 1/2 players, I'm not so sure.
If you fold one time in four (and with QQ-TT, which is 18 combos, it's not an easy call), he's already gotten a break-even return on his investment, if we look at it as a pure bluff.
But it's not a pure bluff. From his perspective, he's got nine heart outs (he doesn't know one is in your hand), 3 non-heart gutshot outs that are probably good against a PFR (though the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is more tainted than the others), and potentially 3 top pair outs.
So, when you call, he's still got a decent chance to win. However, when you've got AK (9 combos), AA (3 combos), and especially KK (3 combos) you might 3-bet, and MP3 can't fold to that and is charging himself to draw.
On the other hand, he puts some pocket pairs to a decision, and if by some chance you've been firing with AQo, then it's going to be difficult for you to call, though you have the best hand.
Against a player who won't fold, the play loses much of its value. Also, I think Villain's pure bluff on the river was probably not worth it. He can't hope to fold much that you called with on the turn except a big suited A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and that's just not going to be what you have very often. But if you'll always 3-bet AK/AA/KK on the turn and your call means exactly QQ-TT or a flush draw, then I guess firing again in the hopes of pushing you off of AQs-AJs in spades is worth a shot, and then then if we can add ATs to your range, then the river bluff gains additional potential.
Anyway, in my experience in small stakes, players who make semi-bluffs like this tend to do it
a lot, often with far fewer outs than Villain had, and when it's overused, the semibluff becomes a less dangerous weapon, I think.