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$ 340 Million
$ 164.4 Million Cash Value

If the cash value is 164.4 million doesnt that make it +ev??? F it im playing but I still wanna know the answer.


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You're playing with tax free dollars, calculate your winning in tax free dollars. 164.4MM * .6 = 98.64MM if you're the only winner.

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prize/ after 40% tax/ odds/ EV
$164,400,000 $98,640,000 1 in 146,107,962 $0.675
$200,000 $120,000 1 in 3,563,609 $0.034
$10,000 $6,000 1 in 584,432 $0.010
$100 $100 1 in 14,254 $0.007
$100 $100 1 in 11,927 $0.008
$7 $7 1 in 291 $0.024
$7 $7 1 in 745 $0.009
$4 $4 1 in 127 $0.032
$3 $3 1 in 69 $0.044

total EV===> $0.843

There is a bonus for second place winnings that makes this bet +. The grand prize is know to be 340mil, but the size of the second place bonus (now at 20 mil) has a much bigger effect on EV than the grand prize.

the effect of this 2nd place bonus is as follows and includes what would happen if the second place prize were split 10 ways. It's not really an EV analysis but gives an idea of the effect that the bonus could have on EV.

prize after 40% tax odds EV
$164,400,000 $98,640,000 1 in 146,107,962 $0.675
$20,000,000 $1,200,000 1 in 3,563,609 $0.337
$10,000 $6,000 1 in 584,432 $0.010
$100 $100 1 in 14,254 $0.007
$100 $100 1 in 11,927 $0.008
$7 $7 1 in 291 $0.024
$7 $7 1 in 745 $0.009
$4 $4 1 in 127 $0.032
$3 $3 1 in 69 $0.044

total EV===> $1.146

It's like having a layover of a well-paying state lottery on top of the grandprize.