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  #18  
Old 07-02-2005, 01:25 PM
Matt R. Matt R. is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Indianapolis
Posts: 351
Default Re: Odds question...

Be nice, he's just trying to understand the problem.

But yeah, it is pretty irrelevant... lol.
I'm actually trying to understand why he's thinking this and why it applies to the problem. I actually don't think nickianthony's way of visualising this is the BEST way to look at it, which may be the source of his thinking here. There is obviously a difference if the "outs" are in someone else's hand versus in the deck -- they can be dealt out if they're in the deck. The "depth" those cards are at is unknown though so you can't think of it in those terms

It sounds like your friend is thinking of this as a conditional probability problem -- he's trying to change the probability because certain cards are "dead". The problem is that you know nothing about the condition, so the probability doesn't change.

Please look at my other post, I'm kind of curious what he sees that is unclear about that logic, or why it's wrong. Maybe I can think of a better explanation or analogy.
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