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Old 12-29-2005, 03:19 PM
Snupoker Snupoker is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 35
Default Re: 2/5 Live Deepstacked Trips

Let's think this through. Villain 1 is BB and his range for calling your raise is essentially any 2. He's shown the willingness to bet and call raises with weak holdings. We can also safely assume he is a "gambler" and not a thinking player as per your earlier references.

After he leads for the pot on the flop his likely holdings are Ax or maybe 2 diamonds in your opinion. You'll give him a 8 a very small percentage of the time as "gamblers" almost always like to be greedy and check-raise this spot if they have the 8. He bets the pot and is called in two spots. Now a thinking player would probably shut it down in this spot after getting called by both you and villain 2.

However on the turn a K hits and his Ax is no longer Ax, but rather AAK88. Now that his kicker doesnt matter, he bets the pot again as he was shown no resistance on the flop. When you call again this would put serious warning lights on in Villain 1's head. Villain 2 folds so the pot is at 600 when the river blank comes. The hands Villain beats you with when he pushes the river in order from likeliest to least likely: 83, 8K, 8A, 33, KK, AA. Villains range that you beat Ax, Kxdiamonds bluff, naked bluff. You push with any other 8x from villain. I'd say you lose this about 10-15%, push about 5% and win the rest.

Given the context of the game you are in I cant imagine any way to fold this hand unless you have a serious read on villain 1.
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