Re: AQs Capped OOP
UTG looks to be either on a draw (weak or strong, possibly a broadway gutshot like AT or a "5-out" hand like JTs) or a hand that's waiting for the turn to try and protect.
He's TAG, but can he fold? You put him in a bit of a squeeze play by betting the turn...if you've got a K or an overpair his 5-out draw is now a 2-out draw and he may fold a J, worried about getting raised by the LAG behind. Additionally if he was peeling with an underpair(not that it's right) he would probably fold as well. Folding a gutshot gives us some more safe cards as well when we are ahead.
The lag would have likely raised the flop with an AF that high with a K and many J, sometimes even PPs. I'm not particularly worried about his hand range unless he's sandbagging a monster.
Given that, I bet the turn. TAG knows you're firing on the flop with everything from 99 to AQ to AA, so a turn bet is more representative of strength and may improve our chances of winning the pot. A raise from either one gives us a safe river fold UI.
It's worth it to invest the extra bet IMO. If the LAG and TAGs positions were switched it wouldn't be as worth it, since the TAG would be closing the action and thus we will be hard-pressed to improve our equity with a bet.
Surf
Ah yeah. Given the way you played it i'd consider calling a river bet, but not overcalling.
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