Re: Need help with some flop probability calcs
Yes, you are right; it doesn't tell us how often we flop top pair. I can calculate how often we flop top pair OR BETTER, though.
Flops that will have at least a K or Q and NO ace:
6/50 x 45/49 x 44/48 + 40/50 x 39/49 x 6/48 + 40/50 x 6/49 x 44/48 = 27%.
So, when holding KQ, we know we'll flop top pair or better slightly better than 1 in 4 times. That means 83% of the time we flop a pair, it will be top pair (or better).
M
|