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Old 12-12-2005, 04:48 PM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 66
Default Re: Need help with some flop probability calcs

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Okay, so I did this calculation correctly except I divided by 117600 total flops. Why exactly do we divide by 6? It's b/c of the permutations (?), right? The number of ways the same flop can come on the board?

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Yes. It's important to be consistent. If you distinguish between A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], then you have 6 times as many flops, and 6 times as many straights as I calculated. The ratio will be the same.

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Also, the sheet I was given said that a connector like JT flops a straight .31% of the time, not over 1% which you said. Is that sheet just wrong?


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That sheet is wrong. In this table, Mike Caro confirms that the probability of getting a particular straight is about 0.33%, and that QJo flops a straight 0.98% of the time. QJo only has 3 possible flopped straights as opposed to 4 for JT.

Perhaps you are looking at data that was caclulated for AKs, though that should be 0.32%.
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