[DougShrapnel]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming most people here read David Sklansky's article a few months back about going for it on 4th down. The basis of his whole article was that you can calculate your EP(expected points) from any field position, your opponents EP from that same spot in case you fail, and your expected 4th down conversion success rate, and then compute your best play from that. He of course offered the caveat that it doesn't apply in certain situations where you'd want to minimize your variance, but in general it is correct. Now i'm not saying this method of analyzing football decisions is correct just because he says it is, but I do think that carries a lot of weight.


[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't read this, but this idea is pure lunacy

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, what the hell would you base it on? Your gut feeling?

[/ QUOTE ]There was some math guy on ESPN trying to convince coaches about the 4 down conversion expected points. The 3 coaches said it was ridiculous that a mathman would dare say anything about football. Percels said that he wanted the mathguy next to him on the sideline so whenever it fails he could punch him in the face. It's too bad, becuase going for it on 4th when your expected pts is positive would really add to the excitement of the game. Luckly for us the NFL can change the rules to artificialy instill more offense into the league anytime they want.