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Old 07-15-2005, 05:43 AM
Smokey_McPot Smokey_McPot is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posts: 4
Default Re: Flopped a set, but the worst card in the deck hits the turn

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Ok, it seems like everyone wants to call here, and that's what I did too. The river is 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] with a pot of around 665 and stacks of 400 and SB checks to me. Do I move in, representing A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A or K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K, or just check it through and cry?

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This is in part what I wanted avoid by pushing on the turn. If you end up in this situation again but instead have the high flush, villain either would already have paid you off on the turn with a lower flush or a straight knowing how you play your sets, and you wouldn't be in a spot where he can lay down a small flush or straight easily. Also, what if he had pushed on the river? You would have invested nearly enough to be committed to the pot with no way to win but vs a complete bluff if another spade hits.

On the actual hand however, I'd say push the river and cry if he calls you with a high spade. Checking would mean your pretty much toast, but pushing would probably force him to lay down a chunk of his HD. On the other hand it does seem like this is the type of river play he'd make with a high spade, allowing you to give him your entire stack. It would probably come down to what kind of hands villain could have based on how he's played previously, putting you in a tough spot not having much of a read on him.

In the end you can never ever (ever) profit directly from calling the turn bet in this situation. It's simply a -EV call since the combined pot odds and implied odds don't add up to make up for the call (and thats assuming he pays you off every single time when the board pairs). Fold or allin in my book.
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