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Old 11-22-2005, 06:26 PM
TheWorstPlayer TheWorstPlayer is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
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Default Re: Reraise this river? A boat from the blind

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I probably push, but I probably should call. Min c/r = rutroh.

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Villain is trying to get hero to fold (just he did twice previously). Hard to see another boat in this slop. I think a straight is villain's most likely holding.

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let me get this straight: You think villain has a straight and is trying to get Hero to fold on the river. So what does villain think Hero has? Is he trying to get him off a split? Is he trying to get him to fold a boat? Both seem unlikely to me. Most likely is that villain has absolutely nothing here, a smaller boat, or a bigger boat. Most likely smaller boat is 22, but he would have shown more aggression with such a strong holding. So he probably has nothing. Or maybe 44 for the smaller boat with pair+gs on the flop/turn. Maybe that is actually his most likely holding which should make pushing attractive. Either way I think it's close. If he's a loose caller and might call here with the straight, then probably push is correct. But if he can lay a straight down on the river, then that probably pushes it to a call.

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I don't think villain is trying to get hero to fold here. He wants a call. He may have an underboat, but he also may be misplaying the case 5 and the river just make him soil himself.

It hard to put villain on a better boat because I think 65 would have been raising at some point before here or at a minimum would have led the river. You have convinced me that a straight is not his most likely holding, but I think a better boat is his least likely holding.

What holding does villain call down with, but check raise the river? It is odd. A full house wants to get paid and I wouldn't think villain would risk checking it down. I think I'm losing my stack here.

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I generally agree with your analysis. But this is quite funny.
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