[Custer]

"After some bad luck you were outstacked 1:2, and you clawed your way back to even. You had been pushing pretty much any two to get there,"

This is why I'm assuming he folds too much in general. Its also why I'm assuming he will call a lot on this hand (and maybe a couple more after this). It seems to me that most players fold too much for a while, then they kind of say, "enough is enough", and call too much. If you then fold a few hands, they go back to folding too much. This probably felt to me like the point where he would say to himself, "enough is enough."

Even if there is a problem with that logic, you can't come up with a realistic set of calling hands that give you more than +0.3% diff on the shove. I think I have enough of an advantage over most players heads up to make passing up this high variance +0.3% gain the best play. I could be wrong.

moses