Re: Pwning at a lower limit
Clearly I need to explain some before you all think I'm more whacked-out than I really am...
Don't get me wrong, the foundation of this bet is smack. Other than flat-out winning a tough Orleans Open event 2 weeks ago, Irie's on a sick cooler right now, especially online (get in a SNG with him and just try to get all your chips to the middle against him with the worst of it and see how it works out...trust me on this one). I figured I'd make the bet to try to get him focused and running in the right direction again, and if that doesn't work, I can at least take advantage of the slide and make a little money off his ice-cold punk ass.
All that aside, however, this challenge is also in the name of science. I have had a theory for some time that the largest component of variance in the SNG comes from the amount of starting chips (assuming starting blinds are always the same), NOT from the caliber of opponents. In other words, the $55's are tougher than the $33's primarily (and perhaps almost exclusively) because you start with more chips. My theory is that the extra $200 in starting chips at the $55 level and above makes bad players "accidentally" play more correctly by tightening up more early in the SNG because they don't feel so short-stacked.
Clearly, I need my ROI to be 67% better than Irie's to win the bet...not an easy task, of course, but I really do think it's doable. I think 25% ROI wins the bet easily, and maybe as low as 20%. Irie is giving me odds on this too(+125), so I actually think the wager is fair and I might even be getting slightly the best of it. I'll be 8-tabling from "ZentheZaster," "ZentheMaster," and/or "ZenDiZaster" so feel free to join me or avoid me as you see fit.
--Z
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