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Old 10-26-2005, 11:48 PM
soah soah is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 112
Default What is my opponent thinking here?

This is concerning the bad LAG I mentioned in the previous thread that I posted.

I joined a full six-max table with him, it went down to three-handed for a while, and eventually filled up again. The hand in question occured after it got full again, so we were getting to know each other pretty well by then.

One of the things that made this guy bad was that he varied his bets based on the strength of his hand.... A LOT. And it didn't seem to occur to him that he was being exploited.

This guy would minraise a lot preflop... sometimes he'd make a real raise (not often though). On the flop he'd minbet a lot, and sometimes he'd make real bets. (After making a "real" raise preflop it seemed he always made a "real" bet on the flop). One time he made a larger reraise preflop and followed it up with a real flop bet, and after getting called in two spots on the flop, he went ahead and bet $242 on the turn when a third diamond hit. I mucked TPTK (no diamond) when he did that...

After making a minbet postflop, he'd always fold to a raise. It was awesome. I tried to be subtle about exploiting it. If he had minraised preflop and I had been the only caller in the BB, I'd sometimes just fold to his minbet on the flop when I had nothing... I mean, I can't raise him EVERY time without him catching on, so here and there I have to give up some pots to him, and it might as well be the small ones. Why get frisky over a $16 pot when he's letting me steal the $40 pots?

When it was three-handed he was min-reraising nearly all of my button raises it felt like. He took down more than half of those pots, but I did re-steal a few when he made the stupid flop bets. A fourth player joined the table and I had 88 UTG. I raised to $14, he raised to $24, blinds folded, I made it $66 and he called, flop came A64 and I bet $100, he took a long time and folded. Shortly after that he raised to $8, others folded, I raised to $26 from the BB with AKo, flop was KQx and I bet $40, he called. Turn was X and I checked, he bet $45, I raised to $90, he called. River was X and I checked, he checked behind with a worse king.

After those two hands he stopped playing back at me so much, but two more players joined soon thereafter and I shifted down to six-handed gear.

So finally we arrive at "the hand" where it happens. He minraises to $8 UTG, two folds, I call on the button with 22, blinds fold. Flop is KQ2 rainbow. He bets $4. I figure he has nothing again but I can't slowplay... it's somewhat likely that his "nothing" is a pocket pair and it could also be something involving a straight draw, and he WILL NOT bluff more than $4 more at a time if I just call him. So slowplaying can only improve him to a winner, and not something that can double me up. So I raise to $20.... and he calls. This is the first time that he has called a raise after making a minbet during this entire session.

What does he have? Has he caught on to me, and if so, is he really sandbagging me, or just calling with a marginal hand to see if I fire again on the turn? Or is he still oblivious to my thievery and he just wants to peel a card with ATo?
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