[Louie Landale]

I haven't read HEFAP for a few years. But if the authors suggest that you should check your AA in dead last position just to manipulate the size of the pot such that the inevitable loose-players turn call is a "mistake"; then the authors are dead wrong.

And its easy to prove. If the loose player is GOING to call as a 7:1 underdog (regardless of the size of the pot) then that call nets you 6/8ths of a bet regardless of the size of the pot; specifically regardless of whether the pot is larger or smaller than 7 bets. If you fail to bet the flop as a 5:1 favorite then you are giving up 4/6ths of a bet. So the difference between checking your best hand figuring to bet the turn, and betting your best hand figuring to bet the turn is ONLY the cost of not betting.

Notice the above adds up the same if the pot is currently 3bb (the opponent will make two calling "mistakes"), the pot is 6bb (the opponent will correctly call the flop but "incorrectly" call the turn if you check), or the pot is 9bb and the opponent will "correctly" call.

Your win %age is constant and your actual win is win%age time size of pot + equity of flop bet +equity of turn bet. Whether the opponent is making a "mistake" or not doesn't add any weight here at all.

Hero makes a "Mistake" by not betting the best hand. This can only be justified if that action can CAUSE the opponent into making an even MORE aggregious mistake later, such as drawing dead or folding a winner. This may happen if the opponent THINKS he's not getting the right odds to chase on the turn because the pot is small, but he really IS getting the right odds.

Now I will say that checking AA, hehehe, can have some merit for other reasons; such as you are almost SURE to get to RAISE the turn if you DO check. But that's not "manipulating the size of the pot to turn the ineveitable opponent action into a mistake" BS.

- Louie