[Catt]

I started writing a post thinking you hit your straight on the river and evaluating overcall versus raising.

I don't like the river call. Yeah, pot is big, yada yada yada. But you described CO as not unreasonable postflop despite his willingness to see a lot of flops. Does CO raise the field on the turn with a hand that is losing to 9s Q-kicker on the river - there's not a whole lot of hands like that? Seems to me that CO's range, based on flop and turn play, needs to be narrowed pretty significantly to a range that has you in pretty bad shape (note you hold the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] so CO is not betting / raising pair + FD). Add in your reads on np's range with him to act behind, and it seems to me that calling is the least attractive of your options.

If you told me that CO is pretty nutso post-flop and could conceivably be playing 88 or a goofy FD like this, then you've got a case for raising the river to fold out an np J and then folding to np's three-bet if it comes. If CO really is reasonable post-flop, I think you're better off folding here.

Edit: Cross-posted with a bunch of others. Did a bit of math. Assuming np folds a naked J to a raise always and has KQ 40% of the time, you still need to be ahead of CO more than 20% of the time to consider a raise. I don't think you're close to 20% unless your read isn't accurate; How often do you think np folds a naked j instead of just overcalling? It would need to be pretty high given the likelihood that you're losing to CO in any event.