Re: Do I need to pay this off??
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Why are we folding this river?
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First of all, we aren't necessarily folding here. jba wanted to know if he could fold, which means "given what we know is a call required here?"
What would make this call obligatory is if we expect to be winning here substantially more than 1 times out of 10.
I happen to think we are winning here a bit less than 1 times out of 10. But somewhere around 1 in 10 seems reasonable. So it doesn't really matter if we call or fold, and we're free to do either one based on meta-stuff or whatever sick whim our brain cooks up for us (btw whims can be excellent pattern mappers so it could be jba's desire to fold is indicative of a deeper read on this player that his conscious mind was not aware of).
The thing that makes his raise a little more believable to me here is the pre-flop raise, flop check, turn bet, which diagrams A-big very strongly. I don't expect unknowns to expect unknowns to fold an Ace.
Btw, I would be much more likely to call here with AQ or AK.
/mc
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