I suspect David's answer would have been longer if we had all fallen for his trap. Perhaps something like this:


I told you to think and not plug numbers mindlessly into your formulas and calculators. I asked for the prediction most likely to be correct, not the time it would take to be more likely than not to win. I only required you to be within 100 and many of you were off by thousands. The correct prediction is the first play since its probability of 1/40000 is maximum. If you don't know how I got that you should stop reading this forum at once. You don't know enough about probability, and you deserve to be taken out back and shot.


How'd I do?