Re: Stats post...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Think about it logically. People who are on downswings are winning players. The deviation from their predicted win rate is greater than the increase in rake. Sure the rake didn't help but it's not the main culprit.
[/ QUOTE ]
I'd like to think I am thinking about it logically [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
when your true win rate goes from Xbb/100 to X-.25bb/100, there is some downswing of Y BBs that was previously statistically impossible but no longer is. So it's very possible people are reporting downswings now that could not have happened before the bump. And whatever probability each player had of going on a 200 or 300 or 400bb downswing is obviously higher now, especially when you consider people who were marginal winners to begin with.
[/ QUOTE ]
I think we are agreeing again. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Basically it's a factor but not the overwhelming one. A 1 B/100 winner shouldn't be a huge amount more likely to go on a massive downswing after the rake increase. And if he does go on a massive downswing the main culprit will be variance.
Krishan
|