View Single Post
  #8  
Old 12-30-2005, 03:34 AM
mmcd mmcd is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 441
Default Re: Live hand: Bottom pair, ugly river

My turn checkraise was purely for value. I figure to have the best hand on this board, and I know this guy's firing a second barrel on the turn no matter what he has. Also, all of his likely 6-out hands became 10-out hands on the turn. If the river completely blanks, I can't count on him to fire a 3rd barrel, because it looks like I'm probably calling him down with a marginal made hand like 33 or A-high after I check/call the turn.

And to those that don't think he will consider bluffing A-high on the river, look at all the hands that got there on the J. Any 8, KQ, KJ, QJ, AJ. It's certainly not unreasonable for him to think he can get me off a baby pair, a 5, or a 7. And although it would be pretty sweet to value bet and get called by a worse hand, the possibility of a bluff raise really concerns me here, and I really don't want to put in 2 bets on the river on that board with bottom pair. (he knows I'm capable of value-betting him thin, and I had already snapped off 1 river bluff raise from him earlier with an unimproved AK)
Reply With Quote