[W. Deranged]

Hey folks,

As one of the new team of crack SS mods, I figured I'd post a question I found interesting following some time spent playing the 15/30 game at the Wynn this weekend. It's something that will come up at a lot of levels, but will be particularly important for those of you at 3/6 and 5/10 moving up to higher levels where more of the play is heads-up.

Here's the scenario:

You open-raise UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. It folds around to the BB, who, like a lot of live low/mid limit players, is kind of slightly-loose-aggressive pre-flop and neutral post-flop (think 28/12/1.5 or so). The BB calls and the two of you see the flop for about 4.5 SB.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

BB checks, You bet, BB check-raises...


This exact hand came up this weekend. The interesting thing about it is that hero's hand is seemingly very hard to define. It is quite possible you have the best hand, and quite possible you have the best draw, but you'll rarely have both, and it's hard to decide which one you have. So you're in a sort of "Either/Or" situation (hence the title).

Here's the challenge. I encourage everyone to try it themselves before reading through the responses:

1. Estimate hero's equity. Do it in two ways. First, try and come up with a number without the aid of any tools--no paper, calculators, Pokerstove, whatever. Imagine you're at the table (or in front of your computer) and have 30 seconds or less to decide. Second, try and come up with a more analytical number. Use whatever tools necessary.

2. Come up with a plan for the rest of the hand. Consider what cards might come that would necessitate different plans.


Enjoy!