Re: Does a decreased winrate have an exponential effect on variance?
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It depends on what one means by "tilt".
If "tilt" is a particular sort of anger or rage induced by bad beats or other losing experience, then it seems to me that a tilter is more likely to become overly aggressive than overly passive.
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I agree with this, except I would not characterize any tilter as overly aggressive. Most tilters get more aggressive in the sense of bluffing more, raising higher and folding less (although as Xhad said, there is also the player who gets timid and cautious after a bad beat). But this is really passive, despite the appearances. The play is predictable, and not designed to give other players hard choices. It's like closing your eyes and charging in battle. It may look fierce, but it's a lot easier to beat than the guy who advances rapidly but carefully, zigging and zagging randomly and keeping under cover.
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