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you think you're ahead 30% of the time, but if you're ahead now, theres no way he's calling your push. so

30% of the time you win a 3100 pot outright: 930
70% of the time you're really behind and lose 4951.. lets say you lose 75% of the time and i think i'm being generous to you: -3445

for like -2500 chips on average.. which is a lot.

Now i didnt count that you'll occasionaly get a better hand to fold, but i dont think that happens often.


edit: i'd think you're probably ahead here more than 30%, considerably more, but just thought i'd show you that according to your line of thought, this is massively bad. In reality it's probably only 'pretty' bad, instead of 'massively'