2 pair against a fish and a scary board
UTG is a fish, 77 VP$IP, 2.6 PFR, 0.71 AF.
Did I make a mistake anywhere?
Absolute $1/$2 9 handed
Hero is CO with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Preflop: UTG limps, 4 folds, Hero limps, Button folds, SB completes, BB checks. (4 SB, 4-handed)
Flop: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB calls, BB folds. (6 SB)
I think here I have 4 outs to Jacks (maybe 3), 2 outs to eights. So ~5 outs... 3.91:1, so call seems correct to me. Raising bottom pair doesn't seem good. Agree?
Turn: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, BB calls. (6.5 BB)
Hit the 9, but realize that it may have completed a straight. Fish betting at me could be something other than the straight right? Figure I have 4 outs to boat, 4 outs to jacks? Maybe 3? Anyway, pot is laying 4.11-1 now. Is this a bad call?
River: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, BB folds. (8.5 BB)
Called cause he's a fish, and I need to win this 13% of the time to break even... is that right? (1/7.5)
Thanks a lot for your feedback.
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