View Single Post
  #12  
Old 12-19-2005, 02:38 AM
Proofrock Proofrock is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 101
Default Re: Mediocre hands from the blinds

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
stop and go is terrible here. there are exactly 0 hands that have you beat preflop that will fold on any flop. I mean, what's the point? If you're going to push any flop anyway, might as well get all-in now as a favorite.


[/ QUOTE ]

with that logic, when if ever, would you advocate using a stop-and-go?

[/ QUOTE ]

I use the stop-and-go when I am in the blind, have a short stack that leaves me with between a 1/2 and full pot bet if I call, my hand is too good to fold given the pot odds and Villain's preflop range, Villain is committed to call my all-in and I also expect my hand to be no better than a coinflip. So I may SnG with lower pairs (<66), weak aces, broadway cards.

The difference between these hands and 1010 is that 1010 is only behind 4 other hands, Villain's preflop raising range is significantly wider than these 4 hands, and 1010 is a big favorite against lower pairs that would likely call a preflop push. Though pot odds won't let me get away from the other hands, with 1010 i figure to be ahead of Villain's range and am happy to push that edge.

Would you SnG with JJ or QQ? why or why not?

My argument against an SnG here is that it is more +EV to push preflop. The hand you're really targeting here is a two overcard hand, since we can assume JJ-AA will call your open push.

So let's say Villain is on two overcards. Roughly (1/3) of the time Villain hits, you push and he calls and wins ~92% of time. (2/3) of the time he misses and should fold because he's not getting the right odds to call. You don't know which two he is on, so you're pushing any flop (sng).

So, assume Villain plays optimally. Then on average your resulting stack size will be
(1/3)*(0.92)*0+(1/3)*(0.08)*(t28500) + (2/3)*(t22500) = t15760.

Now, let's say you push preflop. Against two overcards you are a 56% favorite.
0.56*t28500 +0.44*0 = t15960.

You're better off pushing preflop (this is simplified, of course, but at the very least it's very close). you can ignore higher pairs because we assume they'll call either way. this leaves us with lower pairs -- they will often times call preflop, but will occasionally fold to the flop push, and you'd really rather have them along.
Reply With Quote