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I will buck the trend and say my boy Adanthar has the best of it. I have my reasons, and they go beyond mere nepotism. If you want to know why, do 2 things:
1) Look at the payout structure for mini step 1, and see what place you need to get to get a "try again, step 1" freeroll (or better).
2) Log onto Party, pull up the list of mini step 1s, look at number of players left, and the level.
Adanthar will have far more than 6 shots at getting to step 4.
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I agree. I'm going to go with the minority and take Adanthar here. I think that as long as he is willing to pass up a few +cEV spots for the sake of the wager, people play mini-steps so badly that you could almost fold your way to a freeroll in mini step 1 and then try and win it every time. Once you get beyond step 1 you HAVE to take dead last in order to not loop back.
I'm not near the SnG player Adanthar is, and I think I could probably do this (and no, I'm not accepting wagers). Just look at the structure:
http://www.partypoker.com/news/event...-steps-05.html
If Adanthar had to win a step 5 I'd probably go against him, but the way I understand this he simply has to make it to a step 5, correct? I'll be interested in following, but I think as long as he's willing to be very risk adverse in his mini step 1s, this is easy money for him.
-Rizen